Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are dropping lower so far, down by as much as 4 cents for nearby contracts. Trade ideas for US corn harvest are running 65-66% completed. USDA won’t release those numbers until Tuesday because of the Veteran’s Day holiday. The NASS Crop Production report from Friday showed 2019 corn yield at 167 bpa, pushing production down to 13.661 billion bushels. Expected US ending stocks were cut to 1.910 bbu. Exports, feed use and ethanol use were all reduced and offset most of the production cut. USDA bumped up the expected average cash corn price to $3.85. The world corn carryout was cut to 295.96 MMT. The Commitment of Traders report on Friday afternoon showed that managed money spec funds were still increasing their net short for Corn futures, growing that position to 104,846 contracts as of November 5.

DEC 19 Corn is at $3.74 1/4, down 3 cents,

MAR 19 Corn is at $3.83 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents,

MAY 20 Corn is at $3.89 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents

JUL 20 Corn is at $3.95 3/4, down 4 cents

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures are quite a bit lower after the weekend, dropping 12 1/2 to 13 1/2 cents at midday. Soybean meal is $4.10/ton lower to start the week. Bean oil is also lower, dropping 8 points at midday. Trade ideas for US harvest progress are in the 84-85% range for Tuesday’s weekly report. The NASS Crop Production report left the 2019 bean yield projection at 46.9 bpa and producers remained more optimistic than expected about harvesting acreage hit by snow in October. The USDA left production at 3.550 billion bushels. US ending stocks were projected at 475 bbu. World bean carryout was bumped up to 95.42 MMT. The Commitment of Traders report Friday afternoon showed that managed money’s net long position for soybean futures shrank by 19.2% in the week ending 11/5.

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $9.06, down 13 1/2 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans are at $9.17 3/4, down 13 1/4 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans are at $9.31 1/2, down 12 1/2 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans are at $9.43, down 12 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal is at $300.80, down $4.10,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil is at $31.42, down $0.08

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

The three wheat markets are 2 to 5 cents lower this Veterans Day. Chicago SRW is down by 2 3/4 to 3 3/4 at midday. KC is fractionally lower to 2 cents lower, with Minneapolis down by as much as 4 cents in nearby contracts. The USDA cut harvested acres by 900,000 after the re-survey. The WASDE reported US ending stocks at 1.014 bbu on lower production. World Wheat ending stocks, however, were bumped up to 288.28 MMT. Australian and US production were cut, but other countries like the EU and Russia were increased. The CFTC commitment of traders report showed that managed money flipped their Chicago wheat position back to net short after a two week try at the bull side. They grew their net short for KC wheat, and haven’t been net long the entire calendar year. Also maintaining year-long consistency, managed money spec funds were still net short for MPLS wheat futures.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.06 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.22 1/2, up 1 cent,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.15 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures are mixed so far, with Dec futures dropping 20 cents. Feeder cattle futures are higher, with Jan futures seeing a $1 increase. Nebraska and Kansas each sold 4,500 head of cattle for the week ending 11/08, KS ranged from $114 to $115, while Nebraska cattle sold from $114-$116, with dressed going for $181-$182. The 11/07 CME Feeder Cattle index was down 25 cents to $145.84. CFTC reported that as of Tuesday, managed money was net long for live cattle futures by the largest amount since May. They were also net long feeder cattle futures (by 91 contracts), the first time managed money traders had been bullish as a group since April. The WASDE indicated that US 4th quarter beef production would be 88 million lbs higher than October’s projection, forecasted to bring the yearly production to 27,036 million lbs (about 1% above last year). Wholesale boxed beef prices weren’t updated today, as the USDA is closed for Veterans Day. Choice boxes were $239.12, and select boxes were $213.26 at Friday’s close. Last week’s total estimated FI cattle slaughter was 651,000 head, through Saturday.

DEC 19 Cattle are at $119.050, down $0.200,

FEB 19 Cattle are at $124.925, down $0.100,

APR 20 Cattle are at $126.450, up $0.350,

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle are at $147.325, up $0.325

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle are at $146.875, up $1.000

MAR 19 Feeder Cattle are at $146.350, up $0.850

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures are lower for Veterans Day, down as much as 80 cents in the nearby contracts. Managed money spec funds were net long 13,258 contracts as of 11/5, a 4.2% reduction from last week. The 11/06 CME Lean Hog Index regained $0.03 to $60.19. The WASDE report updated 4th quarter pork production estimates to 7.46 billion lbs to bring the 2019 production to a record 27.620 billion lbs. The USDA is closed for Veteran’s Day, the pork carcass cutout value and the national average base hog price will not be reported until tomorrow. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter was 2.693 million head through last week.

DEC 19 Hogs are at $63.325, down $0.800,

FEB 19 Hogs are at $73.300, down $0.600

APR 20 Hogs are at $79.625, down $0.700

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are trading 21 to 30 points lower this morning in “buy the rumor, sell the fact” action following the USDA reports. The next 7 days are going to be wet, the accumulated precip forecast map from NWS indicates more than an inch for the eastern coastline, central Arkansas, north central Louisiana, most of MS and most of AL are also expected to see an inch of accumulated precip for the week. The Cotton Ginnings report showed that the MY total cotton ginned is up to 6.249 million (480-lb) bales. Cotton yield was down 34 to 799 lbs per acre in the Crop Production report, 7.5% lower than last year. The ending stocks estimate was reduced to 6.1 million bales from 7 million in the October WASDE report. USDA’s world cotton ending stocks figure tightened to 80.8 million bales from 83.69 million in October. Managed money spec funds expanded their CFTC net short position for cotton by 150% wk/wk, and as of 11/5 they were net short 15,247 contracts of futures and options. The Cotlook A Index for 11/8 regained 70 points to 75.40 cents/lb. The AWP will remain at 56.63 cents/lb through Thursday.

DEC 19 Cotton is at 64.48, down 24 points,

MAR 19 Cotton is at 66.27, down 30 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 67.54, down 23 points

JUL 20 Cotton is at 68.66, down 21 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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